Stradbroke Handicap 2015: Backing fillies in Queensland’s premier race a dangerous proposition

Leading force: Smart fillies Najoom (above) and Lumosty both chalked up wins on Saturday.

Leading force: Smart fillies Najoom (above) and Lumosty both chalked up wins on Saturday. Picture: Jono Searle

IF you believe the market and accept the notion fillies have a great record in the race, it’s just a matter of Najoom turning up or Lumosty making the field to determine the outcome of this year’s Stradbroke.

Stewards reported a slight injury scare for Najoom on Sunday, but it is only superficial and isn’t expected to have any effect on her campaign.

After Najoom and Lumosty’s dominant wins at the weekend, bookmakers and punters have gone crazy for the fillies, who now clearly head all Stradbroke markets.

But with only four wins in 50 years, do fillies really have a super record in the race?

La Montagna (2006), Private Steer (2003) and Dane Ripper (1997) gave the girls a golden decade, but before them it was Canterbury Belle (1985) and then back to Cele’s Image in 1964.

Raw statistics can often be misleading, though, and it is fair to say three-year-old fillies would be the least represented age/sex bracket in the race.

Since La Montagna, only nine fillies have contested the race, for a return of four minor placings.

Among them were beaten favourites Srikandi, Sea Siren and Gold Edition. In the case of the latter duo, they faced historically impossible tasks given their respective weights.

Queensland bound? Lumosty thumps her rivals down the Flemington straight. Picture: Getty

Queensland bound? Lumosty thumps her rivals down the Flemington straight. Picture: Getty Images

Lumosty and Najoom will be on the limit if they run.

Still, punters seem to have a magnetic inclination to support fillies, with Melito (2nd), Graceful Anna (13th), Ortensia (3rd) and Ballet Society (6th) all starting single figures over the past decade.

Barry Baldwin is the most recent trainer to prepare a Stradbroke-winning filly and went home from Doomben on Saturday believing there will be another one winning the race this year.

“I think Najoom is one of the best fillies I’ve seen in a long time. That win had to be seen to be believed,” Baldwin said.

“She ran the time, sat wide and it was just a fantastic win.”

“I think she’s one right out of the box and looks the ideal horse for a Stradbroke at Doomben.”

Baldwin said it was only divine intervention that allowed him and La Montagna their moment in the sun.

“If not for the rain, La Montagna wouldn’t have got near them,” Baldwin said. “I remember it started raining that morning and I just stood out in it. One of my staff asked me what I was doing and I said ‘I’m just enjoying it’. She went from a 33-1 chance to $11 and the rest is history.”

Winning smile: Trainer Barry Baldwin with filly La Montagna after the 2006 Stradbroke win

Winning smile: Trainer Barry Baldwin with filly La Montagna after the 2006 Stradbroke win.

FILLIES IN THE STRADBROKE — LAST DECADE

2014 Srikandi 3rd ($6 Fav)

2013 — Nil

2012 Sea Siren 9th ($4.50 Fav), Shopaholic 7th ($21)

2011 Nil

2010 Melito 2nd $5.50, Graceful Anna 13th $8.50

2009 Ortensia 3rd ($7.50)

2008 Absolut Glam 4th ($31), Chinchilla Rose 5th ($16)

2007 Gold Edition 2nd ($4.50 Fav)

2006 La Montagna WON ($11), Media 9th ($21), Street Smart 17th ($31)

2005 Ballet Society 6th ($8), Our Sweet Moss 16th ($31), Wager 17th ($41)

TOTAL: 15 starters, 1 winner, 2 seconds, 2 thirds, 3 beaten favourites

 

Story & analysis courtesy Nathan Exelby  http://www.couriermail.com.au/sport/superracing/stradbroke-handicap-2015-backing-fillies-in-queenslands-premier-race-a-dangerous-proposition/story-fnii0njy-1227367405415

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s