Doomben 10,000 2015: Ratings expert Daniel O’Sullivan cuts down Group 1 sprint to three
GENERALIFE, Our Boy Malachi and Scissor Kick are the only horses in Saturday’s Doomben 10,000 with recent figures good enough to win the race, according to ratings expert Daniel O’Sullivan.
The Group 1 10,000 is Queensland’s highest rated race, but Saturday’s running is likely to fall short of the race’s recent lofty standards.
O’Sullivan, who compiles weight-for-age performance ratings for The Ratings Bureau, said Epaulette (107.5) is the highest-rating winner this decade followed by Sea Siren (107), Hot Danish (106.7), Spirit Of Boom (105.7) and Beaded (104.7).
Our Boy Malachi (104.6) is the only runner this year with a rating this campaign that matches the winning performances in the race over the past five years.
“The best last-start figure belongs to Generalife (103.3) in the All Aged Stakes, where he was arguably the run of the race,’’ O’Sullivan said. “He settled last with a moderate pace up front, he sprinted home in clearly the best last 800m of any runner in the field and was actually faster over the last 200m than Chautauqua.
“The run had a stack of hidden merit and he has to be a leading contender, especially now he has drawn a handy barrier. His All Aged run came off a similar first-up rating, showing he’s returned in career best form.
“I’m suggesting the winning benchmark will be at least 103.5 and I’d be very surprised if this race is won in a rating lower than that mark.
“Generalife is the only horse that comes into the race flying with a last-start figure at the mark that will be required to win. Our Boy Malachi is the only one with recent form (two starts ago) that can clearly eclipse what Generalife did last start, while Scissor Kick is equal on rating from two starts ago.”
O’Sullivan said Our Boy Malachi’s BTC Cup performance was his worst since joining the Team Hawkes stable.
“If he could stretch his best ratings of 104.6 and 105.5 from 1200m to 1350m then it’s unlikely anything else will run to that level, but after his last-start performance and stepping up in distance, there has to be some uncertainty.”
O’Sullivan said Scissor Kick rated on par with Generalife in the All Aged, albeit enjoying a better run in transit, but said “if he can run to a similar mark in this race, he’s likely to be very competitive.”
O’Sullivan believes Srikandi has everything made to order to go to a new career peak, but said that still may not be enough to get her in the frame.
Similarly, he feels Knoydart is too far short of the required mark given his 12-month peak is only 102. He said the best knockout chances were Big Money and Temple Of Boom.
From last week’s Sunshine Coast meeting, Winx was the standout WPR effort, with her 101.5 propelling her well clear of all other three-year-olds to race in Queensland so far during the carnival.
“Winx was outstanding and her last 200m of 10.84 seconds is stunning at the end of 1600m,” O’Sullivan said.
1. PORNICHET 104 — Doomben (2000) OPEN WFA G1 9/5/15
2. HOT SNITZEL 103.3 — Doomben (1200) OPEN WFA G1 9/5/15
3. INDEX LINKED 102 — Caloundra (2400) OPEN HCP LR 16/5/15
4. LEEBAZ 102 — Gold Coast (1800) OPEN WFA G2 25/4/15
5. PORNICHET 101.9 — Toowoomba (2150) OPEN HCP 2/5/15
6. SIR MOMENTS 101.7 — Gold Coast (1800) OPEN WFA G2 25/4/15
7. SRIKANDI 101.5 — Gold Coast (1200) OPEN WFA G2 25/4/15
8. KNOYDART 101.5 — Doomben (1200) OPEN WFA G1 9/5/15
9. WINX 101.5 — Caloundra (1600) 3YO SW G3 16/5/15
10. OUR BOY MALACHI 101 — Doomben (1200) OPEN WFA G1 9/5/15
* 1 point = half length
WPRs courtesy trb.com.au