Comprehensive Group 1 BMW preview & tips
Mitch Fenton @mitchfenton88 is back for his look at the Group 1 BMW at Rosehill tomorrow. After success finding the Slipper winner last week his confidence is sky high. He has based his tips on a Slow (5) surface.
A brilliant 4L Melbourne Cup winner back last November – coming from as far back as 18th in the run to demoralise his opposition. His closing sectionals in the race were;
600m – 34.52
400m – 22.70
200m – 11.68
Those type of sectionals at the end of 2 miles are unheard of, in-fact his closing 200m sectional of 11.68 was the 2nd fastest ever recorded in a Melbourne Cup.
Has had 2 runs back since that win in the 1800m Peter Young Stakes and the 2000m Australian Cup and both efforts have been fair to middling, certainly not setting the world on fire on either occasion.
He could only manage the 5th fastest closing 600, 400 and 200m sectionals in Australia Cup. There’s no doubt he’s looking for further but from what I’ve seen from him in his 2 runs back he needs 3200m and I still think the mile and a half might be too sharp for him.
Can’t entirely dismiss him as he does has a Gr2 2400m win in the Hasna-Pries in France and he oozes class but I think he needs 1 more run to bring him right up to the mark for the Sydney Cup.
Has won 2 from 2 on soft going including Gr2 Prix Kergorlay, a major Melbourne Cup lead up race, so if the track is rain effected it won’t worry him in the slightest.
2.WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (NZ)
Has come on in leaps and bounds since placing in the Melbourne Cup and he now looms like he’s going to be a genuine Gr1 WFA horse.
He’s had two run back this campaign.
He settled 5.5L off the speed 1st up in the Gr1 Chipping Norton at Warwick Farm before zipping home his last 600m in 3.3L quicker than average time to finish 5th beaten just 1.4L behind Contributer who has since won again in the Gr1 Ranvet Stakes in which he blew a high quality field away. His last 200m split was faster than Contributer, just to exemplify how well he finished the race off.
2nd up he went to the 1900m Sky High Stakes at Rosehill and again he settled back in the ruck before powering home his last 600m 1.4L faster than average, including a race fastest final furlong of 11.94 on a Soft 5 rated surface. That might be a tad deceiving however as race winner Hartnell was allowed to trot the last bit, but it was still a terrific run by ‘The Barman”.
Glenn Boss who rode the horse in the Melbourne Cup climbs back aboard and he gets out in trip to 2400m that will suit down to the ground. I think the Sydney cup over 2 miles will be his perfect race but that’s far from saying he’s not a winning hope in this based on his two terrific runs back this campaign.
Twice a heavy track winner so rain effected going won’t be an issue.
3.BEATEN UP (GB)
Has had 4 runs back this campaign in the Expressway, CF Orr, Peter Young & Sky High and has failed to flatter in any of them. Got within 2.5L of Hartnell in the Sky High but that was only a battling effort. He’s either looking for further or more likely, and what I think, he just hasn’t come up this prep.
Has followed the same path as stablemate Who Shot Thebarman through the Chipping Norton first then into the Sky High Stakes.
Both runs have been terrific and he’s ticking over very well heading towards the 2 mile Sydney Cup, but I just have a few question marks over him under the handicap he’s been allotted.
An old marvel whose been up this time, longer than the honeymooner’s proverbial. He’s had 13 runs to be exact and in those 13 runs he’s had 1 win – run 2nd on an incredible 7 occasions and had 4 3rd placing’s. He’s missed the placing’s one just one occasion and that was a luckless effort where he was beaten just 3L. HOW’S THAT FOR CONSISTENT! It’s seen the 8 year old gelding crack the $1million in stakes.
Last start was his toughest assignment of all the Gr1 2000m Australia Cup at Flemington. He was 16th and last at the 400m mark some 9L off the leaders before sprouting wings late to get beaten by the narrowest of nose margins. I’ll be the first to admit I though he’d won watching it live then again as they rolled the replays, but it was stablemate Spillway who got the verdict.
His sectional times running home were freakish. Nothing else in the prestigious Gr1 race came close to matching them.
The knock this time around however is that at 11 tries beyond 2000m he’s only managed to fill the placing’s once – a 2nd in the 2009 VRC Derby. He’s run in this race before and flopped and while he’s in dynamite form I can’t see him troubling these quality horses over a mile and a half.
Doesn’t handle the wet, has 1 placing from 11 soft track runs.
6.FAST DRAGON (NZ)
Got a cheap lead in the Ranvet Stakes last Saturday running the first 1400m of the 2000m race in a ‘tortoise like’ 10L slower than average. Despite the soft run in front he still compounded badly and finished last.
Will lead them up for a portion of the race but isn’t up to this grade.
7.TO THE WORLD (JPN)
Probably the best horse the Japanese have ever bought to Australia, right up there with amazing Caulfield Cup winner Admire Ratki.
His latest run was a close 2nd to legendary mare Gentildonna in the Gr1 2500m $4.1million Arima Kinen (The Grand Prix) at Nakayama racecourse. That run saw him rated at 120 by the Horse Racing International Federation (world ranking’s system) that to put into perspective was equal to the figure Adelaide returned in the Cox Plate and Protectionist recorded in winning the Melbourne Cup.
In the race he beat home Japanese champions Goldship, Just A Way the world’s highest rated horse as well as Japan cup winner Epiphaneia, the world’s 2nd best horse.
The 4 year old entire has only had 10 career starts for 4 wins and 4 minors as well as a solid 5th in Japan’s famous Derby.
On ratings, form and ability he just wins. It’s that simple. Of course we all know it’s racing and things can and do go wrong – but this invader is a load up, put in get out job.
Untried on anything bar good going but breeding suggests a slightly damp surface won’t harm his chances at all.
Godolphin horse who has been imported to Australia.
Made a stunning Australian debut in the Chipping Norton running home 5L quicker than the average to get within a half-length of star stablemate Contributer.
He then strolled home in the Sky High to prove his first up Australian effort was no flash in the pan.
His European form was very good prior to being transferred to Australia and John O’Shea, he won the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot and the Gr3 Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket ….but the begging question is, is it good enough to topple such a class horse as To The World? No doubt he’s improved with O’Shea putting some speed into his legs, but I just think he runs a clear 2nd behind the gun Japanese horse To The World.
Multiple wet track winner, so a soft surface holds no fears.
9.SILENT ACHIEVER (NZ)
Very disappointing last week in the Ranvet after getting a soft on pace run. She looked before that like she was building nicely so I’m inclined to forgive that effort, but she’s outclassed against a tougher opposition this year, even though she won this race last year….This is 5 times harder.
Does love the wet though so a heavy track would see her as a genuine each way chance.
10.LUCIA VALENTINA (NZ)
Star mare that will relish getting out to 2400m for the first time since her slashing Caulfield Cup run in the Spring in which she was 3rd behind Admire Rakti and Rising Romance.
She’s had 3 runs back this campaign in the Apollo, Chipping Norton and last week in the Ranvet Stakes. All three of those runs have been very sound but she hasn’t quiet produced the brilliance that we’ve seen from her prior yet this time in.
No doubt Kris Lees has set the mare for this race since the Spring and she’s a live each way hope in the race. If the track was to be rated at a Soft 6 or worse she’d be the horse to beat all of a sudden as she relishes the wet tracks.
Good hope on her best but needs to lift.
11.RISING ROMANCE (NZ)
Was a touch disappointing last Saturday when being tipped over as the odds on favourite in the Gr3 1900m Epona Stakes here at Rosehill (even though beaten very narrowly by Scratchy Bottom who got the freak inside run), even conceding the fact she did have to lug the top-weight.
The start before that she was a very unlucky 2nd in the Gr1 2000m New Zealand Stakes, failing to have the result overturned in the steward’s room after lodging a protest.
Steps up to 2400m now which is her ideal trip, having run the race of her life last Spring in the 2400m Caulfield Cup where she was nabbed right on the line by Japanese star Admire Rakti. The difference here is that she doesn’t get in the race with a light-weight however now facing WFA conditions at the highest level.
She beat Lucia Valentina and Zanbagh last Autumn over 2400m and that form has proven to be just about as good as it gets. I give the kiwi mare a great each way hope at a decent price.
Has been thrashed at all 3 runs this campaign. Simply isn’t good enough at his best and he’s not going his best.
Supremely confident 7.TO THE WORLD, back him straight out.
Take a trifecta 7.TO THE WORLD / 8.HARTNELL / FIELD
$50 = 5000%
Very confident on the first two, plenty of hopes for the 3rd spot so cross your fingers something at value can bob in.